CONTENTS
List of contributors = ⅷ
Preface = xi
Part Ⅰ : Introduction
1 judgment under uncertainty : Heuristics and biases / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahtientan = 3
Part Ⅱ : Representativeness
2 Belief in the law of small numbers / Amos Tversky and Daniel Kalineman = 23
3 Subjective probability : A judgment of representativeness / Daniel Kahneman ; Amos Tversky = 32
4 On the psychology of prediction / Daniel Kahneman ; Amos Tversky = 48
5 Studies of representativeness / Maya Bar-Hiliel = 69
6 Judgments of and by representativeness / Antos Tversky ; Daniel Kalineinan = 84
Part Ⅲ : Causality and attribution
7 Popular induction : Information is not necessarily informative / Richard E. Nisbett ; Eugene Borgida ; Rick Crandall ; Harvey Reed = 101
8 Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahnemai = 117
9 Shortcomings in the attribution process : On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments / Lee Ross ; Crag A. Anderson = 129
10 Evidential impact of base rates / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahticinati = 153
Part Ⅳ : Availability
11 Availability : A heuristic for judging frequency and probability / Antos Tversky ; Daniel Kalinettiall = 163
12 Egocentric biases in availability and attribution / Michael Ross ; Fiore Sicoly = 179
13 The availability bias in social perception and interaction / Shelley E. Taylor = 190
14 The simulation heuristic / Daniel Kahneman ; Amos Tversky = 201
Part Ⅴ : Covariation and control
15 Informal covariation assessment : Data-based versus theory-based judgments / Dennis L. Jennings ; Teresa M. Aniabile ; Lee Ross = 211
16 The illusion of control / Ellen J. Langer = 231
17 Test results are what you think they are / Loren J. Chapman ; Jean Chapman = 239
18 Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine : Problems and opportunities / Dazyid M. Eddy = 249
19 Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making / Hillel J. Einitorti = 268
Part Ⅵ : Overconfidence
20 Overconfidence in case-study judgments / Stuart Oskamp = 287
21 A progress report on the training of probability assessors / Marc Alpert ; Hozilard Raiffa = 294
22 Calibration of probabilities : The state of the art to 1980 / Sarah Lichtenstein ; Baruch Fisclilioff ; Lawrence D. Phillips = 306
23 For those condemned to study the past : Heuristics and biases in hindsight / Baruch Fischhoff = 335
Part Ⅶ : Multistage evaluation
24 Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice / John Cohen ; E. I. Chcstiick ; D. Harati = 355
25 Conservatism in human information processing / Ward Edwards = 359
26 The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference / Charles F. Gcttys ; Cliittoyi Kelly Ⅲ ; Cameron R. Peterson = 370
27 Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory / Yaacov Trope = 378
Part Ⅷ : Corrective procedures
28 The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making / Robyti M. Dawes = 391
29 The vitality of mythical numbers / Max Singer = 408
30 Intuitive prediction : Biases and corrective procedures / Daniel Kahtieman ; Amos Tversky = 414
31 Debiasing / Barucli Fischlioff = 422
32 Improving inductive inference / Richard E. Nisbett ; David H. Krantz ; Cliristopher Jepson ; Geoffrey T. Foiig = 445
Part Ⅸ : Risk perception
33 Facts versus fears : Understanding perceived risk / Paul Slovic ; Barucli Fisclilioff ; Sarah Lichtenstein = 463
Part Ⅹ : Postscript
34 On the study of statistical intuitions / Daniel Kahneinan ; Amos Tversky = 493
35 Variants of uncertainty / Daniel Kahneinan ; Amos Tversky = 509
References = 521
Index = 553
List of contributors = ⅷ
Preface = xi
Part Ⅰ : Introduction
1 judgment under uncertainty : Heuristics and biases / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahtientan = 3
Part Ⅱ : Representativeness
2 Belief in the law of small numbers / Amos Tversky and Daniel Kalineman = 23
3 Subjective probability : A judgment of representativeness / Daniel Kahneman ; Amos Tversky = 32
4 On the psychology of prediction / Daniel Kahneman ; Amos Tversky = 48
5 Studies of representativeness / Maya Bar-Hiliel = 69
6 Judgments of and by representativeness / Antos Tversky ; Daniel Kalineinan = 84
Part Ⅲ : Causality and attribution
7 Popular induction : Information is not necessarily informative / Richard E. Nisbett ; Eugene Borgida ; Rick Crandall ; Harvey Reed = 101
8 Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahnemai = 117
9 Shortcomings in the attribution process : On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments / Lee Ross ; Crag A. Anderson = 129
10 Evidential impact of base rates / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahticinati = 153
Part Ⅳ : Availability
11 Availability : A heuristic for judging frequency and probability / Antos Tversky ; Daniel Kalinettiall = 163
12 Egocentric biases in availability and attribution / Michael Ross ; Fiore Sicoly = 179
13 The availability bias in social perception and interaction / Shelley E. Taylor = 190
14 The simulation heuristic / Daniel Kahneman ; Amos Tversky = 201
Part Ⅴ : Covariation and control
15 Informal covariation assessment : Data-based versus theory-based judgments / Dennis L. Jennings ; Teresa M. Aniabile ; Lee Ross = 211
16 The illusion of control / Ellen J. Langer = 231
17 Test results are what you think they are / Loren J. Chapman ; Jean Chapman = 239
18 Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine : Problems and opportunities / Dazyid M. Eddy = 249
19 Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making / Hillel J. Einitorti = 268
Part Ⅵ : Overconfidence
20 Overconfidence in case-study judgments / Stuart Oskamp = 287
21 A progress report on the training of probability assessors / Marc Alpert ; Hozilard Raiffa = 294
22 Calibration of probabilities : The state of the art to 1980 / Sarah Lichtenstein ; Baruch Fisclilioff ; Lawrence D. Phillips = 306
23 For those condemned to study the past : Heuristics and biases in hindsight / Baruch Fischhoff = 335
Part Ⅶ : Multistage evaluation
24 Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice / John Cohen ; E. I. Chcstiick ; D. Harati = 355
25 Conservatism in human information processing / Ward Edwards = 359
26 The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference / Charles F. Gcttys ; Cliittoyi Kelly Ⅲ ; Cameron R. Peterson = 370
27 Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory / Yaacov Trope = 378
Part Ⅷ : Corrective procedures
28 The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making / Robyti M. Dawes = 391
29 The vitality of mythical numbers / Max Singer = 408
30 Intuitive prediction : Biases and corrective procedures / Daniel Kahtieman ; Amos Tversky = 414
31 Debiasing / Barucli Fischlioff = 422
32 Improving inductive inference / Richard E. Nisbett ; David H. Krantz ; Cliristopher Jepson ; Geoffrey T. Foiig = 445
Part Ⅸ : Risk perception
33 Facts versus fears : Understanding perceived risk / Paul Slovic ; Barucli Fisclilioff ; Sarah Lichtenstein = 463
Part Ⅹ : Postscript
34 On the study of statistical intuitions / Daniel Kahneinan ; Amos Tversky = 493
35 Variants of uncertainty / Daniel Kahneinan ; Amos Tversky = 509
References = 521
Index = 553